Dan Gallagher: 'Dutch Courage for Sleeping Beauties'
Chair: Kyle van Oosterum
Taking bets that you know you can’t win is typically considered a pretty sure sign of irrationality. But what if, sometimes, it isn’t? And what does Sleeping Beauty have to do with it? I construct a variant of the Sleeping Beauty Problem in which both causal and evidential decision theory license accepting a Dutch book. However, I argue that getting Dutch-booked is entirely rational in these circumstances. I’m interested in pinning down exactly what about the Sleeping Beauty case makes these Dutch books unavoidable and rationally acceptable.
